The theory seems to be that Republicans are losing because early voting gives Democrats a turnout lead. It follows a similar debate after the midterm elections, when a chorus of conservatives said Republicans should start encouraging mail-in voting. But as more data becomes available on turnout in this year’s election, it’s clear that turnout wasn’t the main problem facing Republicans. In every state, final turnout figures show registered Republicans turned out at a higher rate — and in some places a much higher rate — than registered Democrats, including many of the states where Republicans suffered some of the most embarrassing losses. In contrast, high-profile Republicans like Herschel Walker in Georgia or Blake Masters in Arizona lost because Republican-leaning voters decided to vote Democratic, even when they voted for Republican candidates for the U.S. House or other votes in their states.
Understand the Georgia Senate runoff
Georgia is a good example. While Mr. Walker can blame turnout for his poor showing in November and earlier this week, other Republican candidates appeared to have no problem at all. Skipper Brian Kemp won by nearly eight points over Stacey Abrams. Republican candidates for the House won the most votes on the same day. However, Senator Raphael Warnock won in Georgia anyway because a large group of voters who were willing to support other Republicans were unwilling to support Mr. Walker. Final turnout figures make it clear that Republicans – including Mr Walker – benefited from a very favorable turnout last month. Unlike in recent years, Republican primary voters were more likely to vote than Democrats (by a modest margin). Meanwhile, white turnout exceeded black turnout by the largest margin since 2006. We went back and looked at respondents to our Times/Siena pre-election survey and matched them with post-election turnout records. We found that respondents who said they supported Mr Walker were actually more likely to vote than those who said they supported Mr Warnock. But Mr. Walker still lost. On Tuesday Mr Walker lost again. This time, he lost by three points – two points worse than in November. Final turnout figures won’t be available for weeks, but for now it’s reasonable to assume that Mr Warnock has fared better because the turnout has been progressively more favorable to him than it was in November. But that doesn’t necessarily mean Democrats had a big turnout. All the Republicans running for statewide office — except Mr. Walker — could easily survive an electorate that was two points less favorable. According to our estimates, the 2022 electorate was significantly more favorable to Republicans in Georgia than the 2020 electorate — which wasn’t great for Democrats either. Any Democratic gains in the runoff almost certainly weren’t due to early voting. After all, this election was held with just one week of early voting, as opposed to three weeks in the general election. The number of voters on election day actually increased in the second round. So is the vote share on election day. But it was the Democrat who fared better. Georgia is just one example of a wider national turnout gap, including many of the places where Republicans blame early voting for their woes. Take Maricopa County in Arizona. It is home to Phoenix and about 70 percent of the state’s voters. Some Republicans say — without any clear evidence — they retreated in Arizona because some Maricopa voters were unable to vote at the polls on Election Day, but final turnout figures show 75% of registered Republicans turned out, compared to 69% of Democrats. That was enough to give an electorate in which registered Republicans outnumbered Democrats by nine percentage points. However, Republicans such as Mr. Masters and Mr. Cary Lake lost their races for Senate and governor. Or consider Clark County in Nevada. There, they voted 67 percent Republican, compared to 57 percent Democratic, suggesting that Republicans likely outnumbered Democrats statewide. However, the Democrat – Catherine Cortez Masto – prevailed in the Senate, while the Republicans won the governorship and also won the most House votes in the state overall. Wherever I’ve dug into the data, I see a similar story. You can read extensive analyzes of North Carolina, Florida or New York, which also show a significant Republican advantage. In the key Senate states covered in this article, Republican House candidates received more votes than Democrats. The latest Times/Siena polls showed voters in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada favoring Republican control of the Senate. It’s fair to say that voters in these key states probably preferred Republican control of the government, in large part because more Republicans showed up to vote. They just didn’t find the Republican candidates they wanted to support at the top of the ticket.
