Verlander was one of the most unique free agents in modern baseball given his unusual circumstances. He made just one start in 2020 and missed all of 2021 due to Tommy John surgery, after which he hit free agency. At that point, he had essentially missed two full years and was heading into his age-39 season. However, he won the American League Cy Young Award when he was last healthy in 2019. Despite the long layoff, Verlander had plenty of interest based on his past track record and a spring showcase that showed his health to interested teams. He eventually re-signed with the Astros on a one-year, $25 million contract with a matching $25 million player option for 2023, provided Verlander reached 130 innings this year. Not only did Verlander surpass that mark, but he added another outstanding campaign to his long record. He threw 175 innings, making a brief trip to the disabled list for a calf injury. He posted a minuscule 1.75 ERA with a 27.8% strikeout rate, 4.4% walk rate and 37.9% ground ball rate, earning his third career Cy Young Award. This created a free service that was virtually unprecedented. It’s extremely rare for pitchers to play this well this late in their career, especially after such a long layoff. With Verlander turning 40 in March, he was never going to land an incredibly lengthy deal. However, he has previously expressed a desire to play into his middle age, meaning he could be looking to land a multi-year deal of some sort. The closest logical comparison was Max Scherzer, who signed a three-year, $130 million deal to join the Mets a year ago as he entered his age-37 season. That came with an average annual value of $43.33 million that broke the previous record of $36 million, held by Mike Trout and Gerrit Cole. Verlander is a few years older now than Scherzer was then, but the AAV was still seemingly a rough indication for Verlander to target. Astros owner Jim Crane let it be known that Verlander was using the Scherzer deal as a target in free agency, which was apparently beyond their comfort zone. For the Mets, their rotation has been heavily impacted by free agency, as Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker have the entire open market. deGrom is already off the board, having signed with the Rangers in recent days. But they quickly turned around and replaced him with Verlander, who will now replace de Grom as the co-star alongside Schercher. With Verlander’s deal seemingly at $86.6M over two years, he’ll essentially match Scherzer at an AAV of $43.3M, though more details that change the numbers after the decimal are likely to be announced. This is a reunion for Verlander and Scherzer were teammates in Detroit from 2010-2014. For the Astros, they were incredibly aggressive this winter, but it seems their priorities were elsewhere. Even without Verlander, the rotation is in good shape with Framber Valdez, Lance McCullers Jr., Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy and Hunter Brown all present as solid options. Since they apparently didn’t see eye-to-eye with Verlander, they have since devoted their resources to re-signing reliever Rafael Montero and then first signing first baseman Jose Abreu. The Mets have become a financial powerhouse in recent years, with new owner Steve Cohen willing to spend at or near the top of the market to bolster the club’s roster. Last year, they exhausted an Opening Day payroll of $264 million, per cradle baseball contracts. They are now set to go into 2023 with Verlander and Scherzer combining for over $86 million alone, well beyond the combined payrolls of some entire teams. Roster Resource now projects the Mets’ payroll for next year at $277 million, though perhaps more important is their luxury tax estimate of $289 million. The lower limit of the competitive balance tax in 2023 will be $233 million, with three additional tiers at $253 million, $273 million and $293 million, with the Mets just below the top. Since the Mets also paid the CBT in 2022, they will pay a second time in 2023 and be subject to increasing penalties. All spending above the threshold is subject to a 30% tax, with additional surcharges at each subsequent level: 12%, 45% and 60%. In other words, any spending above the $293m level will be taxed at 90%. Given that they are still looking to upgrade their pitching and outfield staff, it seems almost certain that they will indeed get over that line. All of that spending helped the Mets build a strong team in 2022, winning 101 games. While that was the second-highest total in franchise history, they were still pushed into Wild Card status by the Braves. The Mets ended up with a bitter first-round loss, dropping their best-of-three series to the Padres. Now it seems they plan to spend aggressively again and hope for better results in 2023. Verlander was one of three pitchers considered this winter’s free agency aces, along with DeGrom and Carlos Rodon. The Mets lost DeGrom to the Rangers, but have now replaced him with Verlander. For teams still looking to add to the front of their rotation, they should now turn to Rodon, who is reportedly seeking a six-year deal. More to come.
