A strong start to the winter season is expected, with below normal temperatures across most of Canada during December.
For the third year in a row, the main driver of Canada’s winter weather pattern will be La Niña. This is only the fourth time on record that we have seen a La Niña event persist for three consecutive years. Additionally, a patch of the polar vortex is expected to sit over northern Canada, providing an ample source for arctic air that should often dip south and spread across much of the country during December.
We expect that once we get into January and February, however, winter will take a few breaks with periods of mild weather, especially from southern Ontario to Newfoundland and Labrador.
At times, we expect the national weather pattern to resemble what we often see during La Niña winters, with freezing weather in western Canada and milder temperatures from the Great Lakes to Atlantic Canada.
However, we expect the cold weather to shift east at times and extend from the eastern prairies to Quebec with milder weather throughout BC. and Alberta. This is very similar to what we saw in January and February last winter.
The result for many Canadians will be a winter with two faces that will include extended periods of harsh winter weather and extended periods of milder weather that may leave you wondering, “what happened to winter?”
When looking at the big picture for the season as a whole, we expect temperatures to be near below normal across most of Canada, but parts of Atlantic Canada and Nunavut will be warmer than normal.
The La Niña pattern in the Pacific Ocean is expected to support an active storm track in southern Canada, leading to above normal rainfall and snowfall in southern parts of BC, Alberta, Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada.
However, across southern Atlantic Canada, southern Ontario and even southern Quebec, several of our winter storms will bring a messy mix of snow, ice and even rain. So while we are still expecting plenty of snow across much of the region, it is possible that southern areas will end up with below normal snowfall.
Here’s a more detailed look at what we can expect across the country during the upcoming winter season:
British Columbia
A coming and going winter is expected for BC, with periods of mild weather and extended periods of cooler than normal temperatures, with an increased risk of two extreme cold spells. This will result in near normal or slightly below normal temperatures for the season overall. Below normal rainfall totals are expected for the north and central coasts, but an active storm track is expected for southern BC, which will bring above normal rainfall totals to most of this region. This should also bring plenty of snow to the alpine, and at times we expect significant snowfall at lower elevations as well, including Vancouver, Victoria and the Okanogan Valley. A few atmospheric rivers are expected, but the ‘Pineapple Express’ is less likely. This means we should see fewer storms bringing rain to the alpine regions. Additionally, at this point it also looks like early spring temperatures will be on the cool side of the season. This will set the stage for an excellent and extended ski season.
BC’s 2023 winter forecast: Could La Niña mean more snow?
Alberta
An unsettled winter is expected across Alberta, which will include periods of intense cold and extended periods of milder weather. This will lead to near normal temperatures for the season overall across most of the province, including Edmonton and Calgary. However, eastern and northern parts of Alberta could lean on the cool side of normal. A snowy winter is expected in southern Alberta with near-normal snowfall elsewhere in the province. The variable and active pattern will also bring an increased risk for blizzard conditions as Arctic air sinks south into the region.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
A cold winter is expected in the central and eastern prairies with an increased risk of severe cold spells. There will be periods of milder weather, but overall we expect a classic Canadian winter for this region with cooler than normal temperatures, near normal snowfall and an increased risk for blizzard conditions at times.
WATCH BELOW: The blizzard risk has increased for this part of the prairies
Ontario
The first week of December will bring variable temperatures, but overall we expect a brisk start to winter, with cooler than normal temperatures dominating the holidays and a few more rounds of heavy lake snow. However, winter will take a break at times during January and February with the possibility of a widespread thaw in southern areas. An active storm track should bring above-normal precipitation totals to the area, including plenty of snow for the ski areas. However, many systems will bring a messy mix of snow, ice and even rain at times.
Ontario’s 2023 winter forecast: What a ‘locked-in La Niña’ means for snow totals
Quebec
A strong start to winter is expected with cooler than normal temperatures dominating most of December, although we will see variable temperatures in the first week of the month. However, winter will take a break at times in January and February, with the possibility of a widespread thaw in southern areas. An active storm track should bring above normal precipitation and snowfall to the area, including plenty of snow for ski areas. However, several systems will bring a messy mix of snow, ice and even rain at times – especially across southern parts of the province.
Quebec winter forecast for 2023: What a varied storm track will bring
The Maritimes
A variable winter is expected in Nova Scotia, PEI and New Brunswick, but the back-and-forth temperature swings should ease to the warm side of normal in the southern parts of the region for the entire season. In the rest of the region, temperatures are expected to stabilize near normal.
The Maritimes usually sees an active storm track during the winter and this year will be no exception. Ocean water temperatures are once again much warmer than normal in the western Atlantic and this will help provide additional fuel to several storm systems affecting the region.
This winter will bring a greater chance for storms to bring a messy mix of snow, ice and rain rather than just mostly snow, as the storm’s track will allow several systems to pull warmer air into the area. We also expect fewer of the normal traditional nor’easters.
Atlantic Canada’s 2023 winter forecast: What La Niña ‘triple dip’ means for snow
Newfoundland and Labrador
A changeable winter is expected, but back and forth temperature swings should ease to the warm side of normal across the region. Winter is usually a stormy time of year throughout the region and this winter fits that description. As a result, we expect near normal or slightly above normal precipitation totals. Also, ocean water temperatures are much warmer than normal again in the western Atlantic and this will help provide additional fuel to several storm systems affecting the region and bring the risk for messy systems that bring snow, ice and rain, especially in the southern and eastern parts of the province. We also expect fewer than normal traditional nor’easters, but any nor’easters that develop will pack quite a punch.
Northern Canada
A colder than normal winter is expected in southern parts of the Northwest Territories and southern Nunavut. However, above normal temperatures are expected across eastern Nunavut, including Iqaluit. In other areas, near-normal temperatures are expected. Most of the region will see near-normal precipitation totals.
