Analysts believe that Tehran may have already acquired the necessary material to build a nuclear weapon. On Thursday, Iran turned off surveillance cameras used by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to monitor activity at the country’s main nuclear facilities. The move, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi warned, could deal a “fatal blow” to negotiations seeking to revive the nuclear deal. The absence of video from nuclear facilities deprives the negotiators of the nuclear deal – formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – of data, making it “technically impossible to reach an agreement,” IAEA chief Rafael Grossi told CNN. Thursday. “Or you could have (an agreement) without information, which I guess is not going to happen,” Grossi said. “That’s why we say it’s a very serious thing. It has consequences. Of course it does.” Iran has also begun installing advanced centrifuges in a complex at an underground enrichment plant, according to Reuters, which said it had seen a IAEA report outlining escalating nuclear activity in Iran. The incident came after the IAEA board passed a resolution failing to explain the uranium traces found at three undeclared sites. The acceleration of Iran’s nuclear program comes amid growing tensions between Iran and the United States. Talks over the JCPOA are at an impasse due to growing pressure from Tehran to remove the country’s Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) – the elite branch of the Iranian Armed Forces – from the list of terrorist organizations. This is believed to be the last point of contention in almost a year and a half of negotiations between the two countries. Both sides have so far refused to back down on the issue, thanks to internal political pressure in their countries. Trump has listed the IRGC as a foreign terrorist organization in the last weeks of his term. The decision was described as a “poison pill” by his critics, who accused Trump of throwing a key to the wheels of future negotiations to restore the JCPOA.
Dangerous days are coming
The stalled negotiations have dangerous consequences for the region. “While both the United States and Iran have dealt with most of the technical details of the return to the nuclear deal, the differences remain in areas that are highly symbolic,” said Dina Esfandiari, senior adviser on the Middle East and North Africa. in the Crisis Group. “As a result, Iran is now attacking, increasing the pressure,” he added. When Trump left the JCPOA in 2018, he unleashed a wave of overwhelming sanctions on the Iranian economy. The US government found at the time that Tehran was still complying with the agreement. But, as with many Obama-era policies, Trump intended to overturn the landmark nuclear deal, citing Iran’s continued involvement in the Middle East through paramilitary groups aligned with Tehran. An ardent opponent of Trump’s so-called “maximum pressure campaign” against Iran, US President Joe Biden revived the negotiations when he took office. However, Biden’s policy has so far failed to revive the agreement, and Iran has steadily raised its intentions in violation of the end of the agreement. “Iranians have not seen any benefit from the JCPOA since 2018,” said Third Vice President of the Quincy Institute Trita Parsi. “The IAEA has seen benefits from it. Others have seen benefits from it because the Iranians have generally complied.” “It was only a matter of time before this ended, in which the Iranians would say, ‘Well, if we’re not getting anything for this, why do it?’ added Parsi. Iran remains about a year away from building a nuclear weapon, according to analysts, who say the region could now move relentlessly toward further escalation. In 2019, satellite imagery showed the construction of an experimental nuclear reactor that is making “campaign” progress in Saudi Arabia. The United Arab Emirates also has a nuclear program. The nuclear activities of both countries seem to be carried out with the assurances of the IAEA. However, the prospect of an Iran with nuclear weapons could cause an already weak security situation to spiral, raising the ghost of a nuclear arms race in the volatile region. Biden, meanwhile, has run out of options, as the United States has already imposed sanctions on Iran under the Trump administration. The sanctions have dealt a severe blow to its economy, but they have not destroyed it, and Iran is likely to be desecrated in further economic sanctions. Israel’s assassinations in recent years of top officials – including a prominent nuclear scientist – have also failed to curb Iran’s uranium enrichment. This may lead the US and its allies to consider a military option. A war in Iran could crush its nuclear program, but it would wreak havoc on the region as a whole, in addition to dragging the United States into an area from which they sought to disengage. “Some of the most aggressive escalations on the Iranian side in terms of accelerating the program were made under the supervision of Biden and not Trump,” Parsi said. “This is because Biden continued Trump’s policy.” CNN’s Mostafa Salem and Becky Anderson contributed to this report.
