Zelensky’s position, which he and his advisers have repeated countless times, is well supported throughout the country, for sure. The vast majority of Ukrainians do not want to cede any land to Russia – 82 percent of Ukrainians are against it, according to a May poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. Zelensky said that Ukrainian fighters are capable of repelling Russian forces and even suggested that they want to push Russia back not only to the borders before February 2022, but also before the Russian invasion in 2014. But if Zelensky and his advisers have to one day face the realities of war and really get back to a negotiating table and consider – or make – territorial concessions, that could leave Zelensky on the brink of political turmoil, according to with Steven Pifer. former US Ambassador to Ukraine. “Zelensky will have to make some really difficult decisions between the kind of concessions he will make to the protectionist positions and the kind of concessions he may want to make that could be accepted by the Ukrainian public,” Pifer told Daily Beast. . “I think it will be a really, very difficult decision if they get to a point in a negotiation.” Smoke billows from a Russian tank destroyed by Ukrainian forces on the side of a road in the Luhansk region on February 26, 2022.
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And yet, Zelensky knows that it is a question of when, and not if, he will return to the negotiating table. Zelensky said last week that he believed the war would be judged on the battlefield, but acknowledged that he would eventually try to reach an agreement once again. “Victory must be achieved on the battlefield,” Zelenski said. But “any war must end at the negotiating table.” At the beginning of the war, Ukrainian officials came to a negotiating table with the Russians to see if any kind of peace or agreement could be reached. However, Zelensky’s choice to amuse the idea that Ukraine could reach an agreement with the Russians was met with reproach from Ukrainians who challenged his judgment. As the war rages and Ukrainians fall victim to Russian atrocities, Ukrainians are likely to dig up their heels. “Attitudes have hardened in Ukraine, both in government and among the people, so even if Zelensky wanted to make some of the concessions he could have thought of 10 or 11 weeks ago, I’m not sure the Ukrainian people would. “He was accepting that now,” Pifer said. The consequences for Zelensky could be manifested in various ways. Politically, Zelensky’s position has changed since the beginning of his term. Prior to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February, his domestic ratings were low. Even at the height of the invasion, world leaders questioned his judgment when he tried to deny the seriousness of Putin’s plans for Ukraine and did not call his reserves quickly. But when the war broke out, Zelensky met the moment, taking to the streets and fighting with his citizens. He became president of the people. And although he has his finger on the pulse of the Ukrainian people and the state of his determination to defeat Russia back, it is not clear how long he will be lured by the backwardness of a political war hero, especially when he has to start making decisions that are political. full to achieve a real peace. And if Zelensky even approaches a negotiating table, his political future could be shot, according to Orysia Lutsevych, head of the Ukraine Forum on Russia and Eurasia at Chatham House. “This could actually be the beginning of the end of Zelensky’s popularity, if he enters into negotiations,” Lucevic said. “It has a very thin line to walk on when there is some kind of negotiated settlement.” A residential building destroyed by a rocket on February 25, 2022 in Kyiv, Ukraine.
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Starting political negotiations with Russia at this point would be tantamount to political suicide, agreed Olena Lennon, an assistant professor of political science and national security at New Haven University. “If Zelensky started making concessions now, he knows very well where the public opinion is and that there will be a reaction. It would be the end of his career, “Lennon said, implying that a class of veterans could be created to challenge Zelensky. “If he made any concessions, there would be a huge social movement against him.” Apart from any social or political movement against the negotiations, given how much the Ukrainian fighters have invested in the war and how much they are focused on the laser to repel Russia, if there were concessions on the table, some kinetic battles may continue no matter what Zellen decides. to do politically, Lennon said. “The guerrilla war could become a real possibility if the political leadership began to make concessions to Russia,” Lennon told the Daily Beast. “A large number of Ukrainians have either joined the Territorial Defense Forces or joined the army. Many more are armed and have military experience. “Therefore, there is a very high probability that the Zelensky government will be threatened with a military coup if they start making concessions to Russia.” The Biden government, for its part, is trying to stay out of it. “We will not force Ukraine to make concessions and we have consistently stated that the sovereign states have the right to choose their own alliances and to make their own decisions for their own security,” said a State Department spokesman. “We believe that it is up to Ukraine to determine what it considers a success.” “We are focused on giving Ukraine as much of a hand as possible on the battlefield and at the negotiating table,” he said. Zelensky argued that success in this war must first come on the battlefield – victories that have not yet borne fruit. Just last week, Russian and Ukrainian troops fought for the disputed and strategically important city of Severodonetsk, just the latest back-and-forth battles that could determine the future of the war. A poster of Russian President Vladimir Putin is used as a practical target along a trench in the front line with Russian-backed separatists near the village of Zolote in the Luhansk region on January 21, 2022.
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Zelensky is likely to be in a politically safe place now, as discussions on the ongoing battles and concessions have not yet been discussed, said Andrew Lochsen, a former OSCE monitoring officer. . in the Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine. “At the moment we are not at a point where Ukrainian territorial concessions are on paper,” Lochsen, a former State Department analyst, told the Daily Beast. “Until we reach a stage where Ukraine is really facing growing logistical problems or the inability to provide a capable, defensive force, I do not think we will have much discussion about territorial concessions.” Ukrainian officials are unlikely to push for negotiations in the near future because they still believe they can repel the Russians and are still worried about giving Putin something that might look like a reward for the invasion, according to former Bill Taylor. US Ambassador to Ukraine who served as plenipotentiary in Ukraine from 2019 to 2020. “It does not sound like they are ready to negotiate on this point,” Taylor told The Daily Beast. “They know that some Ukrainian territory can be won back on the battlefield, and they also know that some Ukrainian territory, maybe Crimea, will take much longer and they are willing to accept, I think, it will take longer.” “Negotiating at this point will lock Russian control over parts of southeastern Ukraine,” Taylor said. “So the Ukrainians – Zelensky and the people – are not yet willing to have this because they do not want, A, to give up the claim and, B, they do not want to reward the Russians for their invasion.”
