Date of publication: June 11, 2022 • 17 hours ago • 4 minutes reading • 427 comments Pierre Poilievre participates in the French-language debate on the leadership of the Conservative Party of Canada in Laval, Quebec. The HI team says it sold 320,000 party members to make it a leader in the CPC leadership race. THE CANADIAN PRESS / Ryan Remiorz Photo by Ryan Remiorz / The Canadian Press
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OTAWA – Is Pierre Poilievre’s victory as leader of the Conservative Party of Canada inevitable? It seems that this could happen more and more, even though the opponents are questioning the numbers of its members.
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Poilievre’s senior adviser Jenni Byrne raised eyebrows when she revealed that the campaign had reportedly sold nearly 312,000 subscriptions to Poilievre’s site, a figure that, if accurate, would represent about half of the “well over 600,000” total subscriptions sold from 3 June. expiration date. “Well, we wanted to be honest about our member sales. We are very proud and happy for them. And so we thought, why not make the numbers public and invite the other campaigns to make the numbers public? ” Byrne said in a recent interview with the National Post. Marc-André Leclerc, who took part in Andrew Scheer’s winning campaign in 2017, said he had never seen a campaign go so far as to reveal numbers in such detail and could be a good indication that the Poilievre team feels quite sure of their number.
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He also thought it was an interesting strategy to get the party to publish the number of subscriptions sold through Poilievre’s website and to encourage all campaigns to follow suit. Party officials have confirmed that they will not make this information public. “It proves you’re ready to put your head in the block,” said Leclerc, who now works as director for Maple Leaf Strategies in Ottawa and as a political commentator in Quebec. So far, Patrick Brown’s team has said it has sold more than 150,000 subscriptions and Jean Charest’s team has sold “tens of thousands”, though it has declined to give further details. The rest of the campaigns have so far refused to give an indication of the members sold.
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Questions have been raised about the accuracy of the membership numbers sold, as the party already had less than 200,000 subscriptions before the race even started. Chris Rougier, Charest’s national campaign manager, told the National Post that it was “mathematically impossible” to get to about 600,000 subscriptions by adding up everyone’s claims, plus pre-existing subscriptions and those the party sold through its website. hose numbers just can’t stand it “These numbers just can’t stand it,” added Chisholm Pothier, communications director for the Brown campaign. Rougier added that it is easy to inflate the numbers “because there is absolutely no way to verify it and there is no way to confirm it” through the party. He also indirectly criticized Poilievre’s group, saying “the exaggerations themselves are a political tactic” – even “a tactic of intimidation”.
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Steve Outhouse, campaign manager for Leslyn Lewis, said Poilievre’s campaign sent a “very misleading” email the day before membership expired with a “Membership: Incomplete” status that prompted supporters to buy a second subscription hours before the deadline. “We were flooded, as well as completely flooded with calls, emails, messages from people who panicked because they were receiving this very official note saying they could not vote,” Outhouse said. The email, seen by the National Post, showed that it came from the Poilievre campaign and was signed by “Poilievre Member Verification”. The Conservative Party is now reviewing membership lists to make sure there are no mistakes or duplicates. Campaigns were told earlier this week to expect a preliminary list in early July, although “every effort is being made” to provide lists earlier, according to the party.
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Once full lists of members have been given to each campaign, the contest will officially enter the persuasion stage, which consists of trying to influence members before the voting period. The teams Charest, Brown and Lewis all told the National Post that they believe they have a way to win, even though Poilievre’s supposed numbers are well ahead of their own. The Charest team, for example, believes that this path to victory lies in a “point strategy”. “We knew that no matter what happened, that would be a closed fight and it would be a fight. “So we devised a equestrian strategy where it would be easier to get more points during the sales period,” Rougier explained. He admitted that it is difficult to draw up a “definitive strategy” since the team does not have the preliminary lists in its hands. “Whether a rider has 200 or 5,000 members is a really important factor in making strategic decisions,” Rougier said. Brown’s team said it would continue to reach out to cultural communities that had felt alienated from the party in the past, while Lewis’s team still has strong support from Social Conservatives. A source in the Poilievre campaign said they were feeling “very, very good about things”, but said the crucial step would be to get the votes out in late July and August in time for the September deadline. “We do not take anything for granted.”
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