In fact, Covid-19 cases have been rising steadily nationwide since late March. Hospitalization and death rates remain low and are likely to remain so. But beyond that, many experts say they are unable to predict the trajectory of the current wave, including how and when it will end. Given the last two years of the previous pandemic, this is somewhat surprising – and one of many indications that the continuing increase in cases is markedly different from previous increases in Covid. Some experts say it may even signal the beginning of the country’s “new normalcy”. Here’s why and what this means for the future of the pandemic:
Because everyone you know gets Covid these days
Previous increases were caused by the emergence of new variants of Covid. This wave is fueled mainly by declining immunity, says Dr. David Dowdy, an associate professor of epidemiology at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and a physician at Baltimore Medical Services. The immunity that humans gained from recovering from the micron wave in December and January is weakening, allowing the micron and its variants to “do [their] “Many Americans no longer take very strict precautions for Covid, assuming that if they get sick, they will probably recover without ever being treated.” Overall, this explains the last two months of rising cases: The rolling average of new daily cases in the country is 109,032 as of Wednesday, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This large number is probably a significant understatement, with many people no longer relying on home tests – and not reporting their results – or avoiding Covid tests altogether. “We see this disconnect between the ‘official’ number of cases, for example, and the rate of positivity or other indicators such as wastewater monitoring,” Dowdy said.
How to measure if you have to worry
The omicron winter wave had an incredibly steep peak. Instead, it is driven more by “many mini-waves coming and going,” says Dr. Howard P. Forman, director of the healthcare management program at Yale School of Public Health. Forman says the geographic circulation of the virus is different this time around: When New York is in trouble, for example, Florida can do just that, and vice versa. These peripheral waves are often driven by different variants of the micron – sometimes multiple at the same time – making the virus even more difficult to eradicate. Forman says this is likely to look like Covid in the near future. This does not mean resetting lockdowns or cover commands. Instead, says Forman, people should be prepared to adjust their behavior and take the necessary precautions when there is an outbreak in their area – using measurements such as hospitalization rates instead of new daily cases to measure local severity. “People need to understand that we will still have real waves and new variations, and they need to keep paying attention and treat it as if it were still a pandemic,” says Forman.
This could be a preview of “new normal”
The burden of US affairs could finally fall back to its levels in early March. Or, this could be a look at what Covid-19 looks like as an endemic virus – in other words, “our new normal”. Either way, instead of trying to relive 2019, Forman recommends incorporating Covid prevention strategies into your daily routine. Mostly, he says, it means staying informed about your vaccines and feeling comfortable with self-monitoring at home on a semi-regular basis. Dowdy says you should take a home test an hour before you go to any big event or visit a loved one, because “this will be the best indication of your contagious level at that time.” You should also have a home test about five days after any possible exposure to the virus, he adds. If you’re positive, quarantine or isolate yourself properly – even if it means missing something important in your life. Forman says you could also consult your doctor about an antiviral treatment such as Paxlovid, which is becoming increasingly available to treat Covid infections. “Paxlovid works best if used to treat patients early, which means trials are even more important now than they were a few months ago,” he says. Sign up now: Become smarter about your money and career with our weekly newsletter Dont miss:
